Iran threatens Bab al-Mandeb closure, raising stakes in global energy crisis
Top Khamenei adviser warns that ‘Resistance front’ could shut second major shipping chokepoint, potentially blocking a quarter of world’s oil and gas
NEW DELHI — Iran has threatened to close the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait, a move that — combined with the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz — would block a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply and cripple global trade, a top Iranian official warned Sunday.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a former Iranian foreign minister and influential adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said on X that “the unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz.”
“If the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realize that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move,” Velayati wrote, according to Iran’s state-owned Press TV.
The warning comes as US President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges starting Wednesday unless Tehran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said Hormuz remains open only to ships from countries that negotiate safe passage — excluding the US and Israel.
A ‘nightmare scenario’ for global trade
The Bab al-Mandeb strait, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is just 29km (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point. It is effectively controlled by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, a key part of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance.”
In 2024, approximately 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined products — about 5 percent of global supply — passed through the strait. Roughly 10 percent of all global trade, including container shipments from China, India and other Asian nations to Europe, also transits the waterway.
If both Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz were closed, a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply would be blocked, experts say.
Houthis have already demonstrated capability
The Houthis previously shut down Bab al-Mandeb during Israel’s war on Gaza, targeting ships associated with Israel or the US until a May 2025 ceasefire. Since late March, the group has resumed firing missiles and drones at Israel.
Nabeel Khoury, a former US diplomat and deputy chief of mission in Yemen, told Al Jazeera that a true Houthi entry into the war would mean blocking the strait.
“All they have to do is fire at a couple of ships coming through, and that would lead to the arrest of all commercial shipping through the Red Sea,” Khoury said. “That would be a red line, and then you would see attacks against Yemen [from the US and Israel] very quickly.”
Saudi Arabia increasingly reliant on the route
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Saudi Arabia has turned to its East West Pipeline, running from the Abqaiq oil processing center to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The pipeline operated at its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day by the end of March — more than ever before — to ship crude through Bab al-Mandeb.
Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East specialist and president of Girton College at Cambridge University, described a potential closure as a “nightmare scenario.”
“Because if you have restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time as restrictions are escalating in the Bab al-Mandeb, then you really will disrupt, if not cripple, trade toward Europe,” Kendall told Al Jazeera. “So this is a knife edge, really, depending on what happens next.”
However, she noted that while this is a “sweet spot” for the Houthis, the group might not want to “provoke a Saudi or indeed a broader response.”
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