Analysis: Wave of Strikes Hits Unprecedented Scope Across Iran, Signaling Shift in Military Strategy
In a dramatic escalation that appears to extend far beyond the targeted strikes of recent months, multiple explosions were reported overnight in at least eight major Iranian cities, including the northwestern city of Zanjan, a location previously unmentioned in any Western analytical forecasts or target lists.
Ahram Online has confirmed that Israeli and US aircraft struck a depot site in Zanjan, a city 300 kilometers northwest of Tehran. Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency also reported explosions, while open-source intelligence (OSINT) accounts circulated footage showing detonations consistent with precision-guided munitions hitting stored ordnance, causing significant secondary explosions.
The strikes on Zanjan, alongside simultaneous reports of attacks in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, Kermanshah, Tabriz, and Lorestan, suggest a coordinated campaign of a scale not previously witnessed. This marks a departure from operations focused on nuclear facilities, instead pointing towards the systematic dismantlement of Iran’s entire military logistics and supply chain.
‘The Map Covers Everything’
The targeting of a non-descript depot in Zanjan is being interpreted by military analysts as evidence of deep intelligence penetration. For decades, Iran’s military doctrine has relied on geographic dispersal—spreading command nodes, missile storage, and production facilities across its vast 1.6 million square kilometer territory. The strategy was designed to ensure that no single strike could be decisive and that critical infrastructure would survive a first wave of attacks.
“The enemy hit Zanjan. The enemy is not missing anything,” the analysis from Shanaka Anslem Perera notes, framing the strike as proof that the target list is not a limited set of high-value assets, but a comprehensive map of Iran’s military infrastructure. “When a military campaign reaches cities that no analyst predicted, it means the target list is not a list. It is a map. And the map covers everything.”
The implication is that US and Israeli intelligence have successfully mapped Iran’s logistics network “down to the warehouse level,” allowing them to sever supply arteries across the country simultaneously. This parallel approach aims to paralyze Iran’s ability to reload and sustain operations following the initial wave of attacks.
A State in Crisis, a Market Mispricing Risk
The military action unfolds against a backdrop of what Perera describes as seven simultaneous, structural crises within Iran that are rapidly accelerating and feeding into an “irreversible doom loop.” These include severe water scarcity, a sustained exodus of human capital, and the effective collapse of the national currency’s value.
Perera argues that the global market is fundamentally mispricing the situation. The current $10-per-barrel risk premium built into Brent crude oil prices, he contends, reflects a market anticipating a conventional war—a temporary disruption that could be resolved. However, unusual activity in the options market, including a sustained streak of bullish call options on Brent, suggests that “smart money” is pricing a more catastrophic scenario: state decomposition triggered or accelerated by military conflict.
“The premium is wrong because it assumes Iran is a country that might be destabilized by external military force,” Perera writes. “Iran is a country being consumed by seven simultaneous structural crises… forming an irreversible doom loop that even full sanctions relief cannot reverse.” The use of thousands of foreign mercenaries to suppress domestic unrest is cited as a particularly diagnostic indicator of state fragility.
What Happens Next?
The confluence of a massive, unprecedented military campaign with deep internal structural decay creates a volatile and unpredictable situation. The immediate military objective appears to be the systematic degradation of Iran’s ability to project power and sustain a prolonged conflict. The broader strategic question is whether this external pressure will act as a catalyst that accelerates the internal crises the country already faces, potentially leading to a level of state instability far beyond what current geopolitical risk models account for. For now, the explosions across eight cities signal that a new and wider phase of the conflict has begun.
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