Uganda Eyes Upper Middle-Income Status with Projected 10.4% GDP Growth in FY 2026/27

The Government of Uganda has unveiled an ambitious economic vision, forecasting a dramatic growth surge to 10.4% in the Financial Year 2026/27. This projection was presented by the State Minister for Finance, Planning and Economic Development (General Duties), Hon. Henry Musasizi, during a briefing to Parliament’s Budget Committee on the National Budget Framework Paper (BFP) for FY 2026/27.

Minister Musasizi, flanked by the Permanent Secretary/Secretary to the Treasury, Dr. Ramathan Ggoobi, declared that Uganda is at its “most promising economic inflection point.” He stated that the coming financial year presents a critical opportunity to fast-track the nation’s qualitative leap towards achieving upper middle-income status.

The optimism follows a reported GDP growth of 6.3% in FY 2024/25, with projections for the current year (2025/26) ranging between 6.5% and 7.0%. The anticipated 10.4% leap in FY 2026/27 is expected to expand the economy to Shs 290.2 trillion (approximately USD 76.7 billion).

“The budget for next financial year will be guided by the aspiration to expand the size of the economy tenfold before 2040, starting by doubling GDP every five years as programmed under the NDPIV,” Musasizi said. He emphasized that this policy will be driven by “sustained investments in the ATMS and enablers.”

However, the Minister outlined significant challenges tagged as “critical unfinished business.” These include stamping out budget-related corruption, closing financial leakages in sectors like education and health transfers and the payroll, improving liquidity management and sovereign credit ratings, and diversifying sources of development finance.

The total preliminary resource envelope for FY 2026/27 is set at Shs 69.399 trillion, a reduction from the Shs 72.376 trillion allocated in the current fiscal year.

In a separate session before the Finance Committee, Minister Musasizi and the Minister of State for Planning, Hon. Amos Lugoloobi, presented the BFPs for specific votes. The Ministry of Finance (Vote 008) is allocated an estimated Shs 2,693.40 billion, down from Shs 2,796.77 billion, attributed to the overall smaller resource envelope.

Furthermore, Shs 28,264.652 billion has been allocated to Treasury Operations (Vote 130) to ensure the timely processing of debt service payments, redemptions, and other statutory obligations.

The government’s message underscores a strategic push for transformative growth, leveraging what it terms a historic economic inflection point to propel Uganda towards its long-term development goals.