Uganda’s New Parliament: NRM Dominates, Independents Surge in Regional Shifts
KAMPALA — Uganda’s political landscape has been definitively redrawn with the release of provisional parliamentary election results, showcasing an overwhelming victory for the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and a significant surge for independent candidates. With 495 of 499 seats declared, the NRM has secured a commanding 355 seats, reinforcing its supermajority in the legislature.
The results reveal a nation with stark regional political identities. The main opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) has solidified its position as the primary challenger, but its strength is heavily concentrated, winning 48 seats overall. A striking feature of this election is the performance of independent candidates, who, with 63 seats, have emerged as the second-largest bloc in the new Parliament, surpassing every individual opposition party.
Regional Strongholds and Political Concentration
A deep dive into the regional data paints a picture of distinct political territories. The NRM’s dominance is near-total in many regions. In Ankole, the party holds 43 of 47 seats. In Tooro, it secured 28 of 31 seats, and in Bunyoro, 22 of 27 seats. Similar strongholds are evident in Bukedi (24 of 29), Karamoja (21 of 26), Kigezi (19 of 22), and Teso (27 of 35).
However, the opposition has carved out its own areas of influence. The Buganda region is the epicenter of a political duel, where the NRM’s 57 seats are directly challenged by the NUP’s 39. This region alone accounts for the vast majority of NUP’s national tally. In the north, the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) demonstrates a revival of traditional support, capturing 10 of the 30 seats in the Lango sub-region. Meanwhile, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and Democratic Party (DP) find pockets of support in Acholi, West Nile, and Teso.
The Rise of the Independents and Smaller Parties
The success of 63 independent candidates is one of the most telling outcomes of this election. These candidates have secured meaningful representation across diverse regions, from 6 seats in Bugisu to 9 in Busoga and 7 in West Nile. This trend suggests a potent voter desire for local representation that transcends established party loyalties.
Smaller parties maintain a foothold in specific localities. The DP won 5 of its 6 total seats in Acholi. The FDC’s 10 seats are scattered across Acholi, Bugisu, Busoga, Teso, and West Nile. The People’s Federal Forum (PFF) and the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) each won a single seat in Bunyoro.
Analysis: A Supermajority with Undercurrents of Fragmentation
The composition of the 11th Parliament presents a paradox of overwhelming control and emerging fragmentation. The NRM’s supermajority of over 71% ensures it can govern and legislate with minimal obstruction, promising a continuation of its political and policy agenda.
Yet, beneath this dominance, the results indicate clear undercurrents. The strong regional concentration of the NUP in Buganda reinforces a growing political divide between the center and other parts of the country. The significant number of independent MPs could introduce a more unpredictable element to parliamentary proceedings, as they are not bound by strict party discipline. Furthermore, the survival of historical parties like UPC in their traditional strongholds points to the enduring nature of regional political identities.
The final balance of four seats remains to be declared. As the new Parliament prepares to convene, it will be an institution where absolute NRM control coexists with vocal, regionally based opposition blocs and a large cohort of independent voices, setting the stage for the next chapter in Uganda’s governance.
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